France’s Legislative Elections and the Uncertain Path to 2027

As most expected, Marine Le Pen’s Rassemblement National (RN) was the clear winner of the first round of the snap legislative elections in France, unexpectedly called by President Macron three weeks ago. Le Pen’s party, allied with a rump Les Républicains, led by Eric Ciotti, obtained 33.1% of the votes. A coalition including moderate and radical left parties, the Nouveau Front Populaire (NFP), came second with 28.1%, while the centrist parties supporting Gabriel Attal’s government received 21.3%. The mainstream right Républicains who refused to ally with the RN stopped at 6.6%. The RN confirmed its strong showing at last month’s European elections and more than doubled its votes in comparison to the last legislative elections of April 2022. Yet, an RN-led government is not a foregone conclusion.

The Emir Giveth, the Emir Taketh Away

Kuwait, a democratic outlier in a hopelessly authoritarian Gulf, is facing a constitutional crisis under its new Emir who is intolerant to his country’s never-ending political gridlocks. Over the next four years, expect a constitutional overhaul. Instead of emulating the Kais Saied model, which would scrap the entire democratic experiment, the new constitution should address the key flaws in a six-decade-old political system that has been plagued by persistent stalemates between the government and parliament.

A High-Stakes Game

So it has happened: Marine Le Pen’s Rassemblement National (RN) received more than twice the votes of Macron’s Renaissance list in the European elections (31.4% vs. 14.6%). Following the results, Macron announced to dissolve parliament and call an early election. Judging by the immediate reactions on social media, Macron’s announcement shocked several commentators and the public. Yet, from the perspective of the 2027 presidential elections, the reasoning may not be as reckless as it seems. Macron’s calculation is based on the consideration that three more years of the current situation would make a Le Pen presidency highly likely in 2027.

Das ist Kunst, das kommt weg

Auch ohne Beteiligung einer autoritären Partei an einer Regierung hat der sog. „Kulturkampf von Rechts“ längst begonnen und zeitigt Erfolge. Nicht nur in Thüringen oder in Deutschland, sondern auch international dient Kultur als Strategie der Polarisierung. Sie bietet ein besonders wirksames, oft unterschätztes Feld für Legitimationsnarrative, denn sie baut Legitimationsbrücken zwischen Rechtspopulismus und Neonazismus. Jetzt kommt erst die schlechte Nachricht: Eine autoritäre Regierung kann sich dabei die Kunstförderung spielend leicht zu Nutze machen

Party Bans and Populism in Europe

In the latest episode in a decades-long conversation about militant democracy, the growing electoral success and radicalization of Alternative for Germany have relaunched debates about the appropriateness of restricting the political rights of those who might use those rights to undermine the liberal democratic order. While it is typical for dictatorships to ban parties, democracies also do so, but for different reasons and with compunction. Party bans respond to varying rationales which have evolved over time. However, a ban on the right-wing populist Alternative for Germany would be out of step with more general patterns of opposition to such parties in Europe.

What is Living and What is Dead in the Turkish Parliament?

On January 30th, 2024, the Turkish Parliament officially revoked the mandate of Can Atalay, an opposition MP representing the earthquake-affected city of Hatay. Atalay's incident, from its inception to the recent parliamentary drama, not only exposes the diminished authority of the Constitutional Court but also exemplifies the tacit cooperation among the regime's loyal officers—judges, MPs, or civil servants. In this subtle network, the Parliament occupies a peculiar place with its distinct symbolism, serving as a fig leaf for authoritarian politics.