Boiling the Frog

In the wake of Turkey's recent presidential elections, previous blogposts objected to characterizing authoritarian regimes such as Turkey, Hungary and India as ‘competitive’ solely by virtue of regular elections, which are formally free but fundamentally unfair. However, this blogpost argues that the prior ones missed the main problem in Turkey: The playing field in Turkey is not only “massively tilted in favor of Erdogan” now; it has always been tilted in favor of the majority – long before Erdoğan. This blogpost discusses the slow death of Turkish electoral competitiveness. First, I describe the politico-legal context that enabled Erdogan’s rise. Second, I contrast the developments in Turkey regarding election competitiveness to European legal standards and strikingly late political demands.

An Honest Broker?

A characteristic of the functioning of the EU is that the Presidency of the Council of Ministers rotates between Member States every six months according to a previously agreed order. The EU Presidency is responsible for driving forward the Council’s work on EU legislation. In the second half of 2024, Hungary will take over the Presidency, followed by Poland in the first half of 2025. Given their rule of law record, it is highly questionable whether they will act in the Council’s general interest. In order to avoid damage, there are three avenues available to the Council and the Member States.

Ecuador’s Mutual Death Clause

On May 17, Ecuadorian President, Guillermo Lasso, dissolved the National Assembly by activating a unique constitutional clause known as ‘mutual death’ [muerte cruzada]. Under this provision, added to Ecuador’s Constitution in 2008 but never before used, the President can dissolve the Legislative, call general elections, and rule by decree until a new Legislative and President are elected. This post details the significance of these recent events and the decision of the Constitutional Court to render the clause non-reviewable.

A Return of Mainstream Politics?

The Greek election results of Sunday 21 May 2023 had a seismic effect, with many commentators juxtaposing them to the elections of 2015, when Syriza’s dramatic victory marked the overhaul of the pre-crisis political system. This time, the circle of crisis politics is said to be complete. Syriza’s devastating defeat with a margin just above 20% supposedly marks the end of a polarized era and the desire to return to ‘mainstream politics’. These elections made clear that there is currently no articulated, alternative vision of social ordering that could inspire and successfully challenge the current constellation of social forces.

Finding a Constitutional Equilibrium

The beginnings of Georgian constitutionalism go back substantially to the first years of Georgia's first democratic republic (1918-1921). On 26 May 1918, Georgia declared itself independent from Russia, establishing a democratic republic and its first constitution in 1921. Arguably, it had recognized, collected and mixed the best possible practice of constitutional doctrines of the time. Although the current 1995 constitution bases its legitimacy on the first constitution, it was only through the constitutional reform of 2017-2018 that it was modernized to return to the achievements of the first Constitution of 1921.

A Flawed Vote, Not a Horse Race

The elections in Turkey/Türkiye showed the dilemma for the political opposition in competitive authoritarian regimes: They have to create momentum for change. They must believe it is possible to win elections. If they don't believe this, their voters won't. It is difficult to avoid this dilemma, but there is something journalists, experts and officials from other countries can do: Always stress the unfairness of the conditions in which the elections are being held. Do not get a carried away by the excitement of the race. Focus on the fact that the race is not being run on level ground.

Medienfreiheit als europäische Tradition

Über den Entwurf des Europäischen Medienfreiheitsgesetzes (EMFA) und seine Auswirkungen auf die Unabhängigkeit der Nationalstaaten im Bereich der Medien wird derzeit lebhaft diskutiert. Ein Vorwurf war besonders häufig zu hören: Der Entwurf des EMFA sei der neuste Versuch Brüssels, die Souveränität östlicher Mitgliedstaaten mit Rechtsstaatlichkeit-Defizitzu unterminieren. Dieser Beitrag stellt sich diesem Vorwurf entgegen. Oft wird nämlich vergessen, dass die Regulierung europäischer Medien zwecks Sicherung des Medienpluralismus weder eine neue Forderung ist, noch historisch einen engen Bezug zu den östlichen Mitgliedstaaten aufweist. Im Gegenteil, das Streben nach einer Harmonisierung des Medienpluralismus und der Medienfreiheit ist ein seit Jahrzehnten immer wiederkehrendes Vorhaben in der EU. Die EMFA als ‚neuesten‘ Versuch Brüsseler Einflussnahme auf Osteuropa darzustellen ist daher schlicht ahistorisch.

Föderale Entscheidungssperre für Landesstaatsrecht

Das Bundesverfassungsgericht hat, wie wir erst jetzt wissen, am 25. Januar 2023 eine Grundsatzentscheidung zu den Verfassungs- und Verfassungsgerichtsbarkeitsräumen im deutschen Bundesstaat getroffen. An diesen Tag lehnte es einen Eilantrag ab, mit dem die vom Verfassungsgerichtshof Berlin verfügte vollständige Wiederholungswahl zum Berliner Abgeordnetenhaus ausgesetzt werden sollte. Die in ihrem Kern überzeugenden Gründe der Ablehnung wurden erst gestern bekanntgegeben, sie werden hier kurz erläutert, kommentiert und eingeordnet.

National Dialogues as Constitutional Moments

In April 2022, Egypt's President Al-Sisi announced a surprising call for a “political dialogue on national priorities during the current phase.” The announcement formed part of a broader package of reforms that the Egyptian government seemingly initiated, following years of sustained criticism over its human rights record. After a year-long wait, the National Dialogue launched on May 3, 2023. This post will explain why despite some promising features, it is unlikely to effectuate meaningful change, due to certain design flaws and the decision by its Board to preclude the possibility of constitutional change.

The Dilemma of Technocracy

A few months before general elections that might result in Slovakia joining Hungary's and Poland's illiberal takeover in Central Europe, its technocratic government is in crisis. This post shows how the weaknesses of Slovakia’s constitutional design have fueled the present malaise, and details the lessons we should draw from it for ordering the relationship between the head of state, parliament and the executive in other parliamentary systems with a directly elected president.